4.2%
projected increase in 2026 holiday sales
$1.013T
forecast total for 2026 holiday sales
56%
of shoppers say the economy will impact their spending
31%
of those shoppers will comparison shop online more than usual
Retailers can usually give you a number on what they sold by the end of the first week in December. But can they tell you how their buys performed on the shelf? That information is extremely valuable during the holidays, when you’re buying product for such a short period of time and then selling it for an even shorter period of time. If it doesn’t sell quickly, it will be worth less than you paid for it. So how do you perform a retail inventory analysis on your holiday buys? Well, it doesn’t have to be complicated.
With the NRF predicting holiday sales to increase by 4.2% this year and reach $1.013 trillion, we know that people are going to be spending. That means there will be many purchase requests put out that are similar to last year’s, which may leave you with a few extra boxes in your back room come January (you know, the ones next to the seasonal items from two years ago). Here are two tips to check before you put in yours, plus a short checklist to work through before the season ends.
Retail Inventory Analysis Tip #1
Check to See How Your Products Are Selling
Say you’re analyzing your buy and it shows you ordered 400 poinsettias during this time last year. Your sell-out history shows that it took you 7 weeks to sell them, and you had about 15% waste. You could tell your analyst: “Last year we bought 400 poinsettias at this time. They took 7 weeks to sell, and we wasted 15%. Could you try splitting that buy in half, about 3 weeks apart, or see if our vendor can split the shipment?”
That may seem like a far-fetched story, but it’s not. You already have the information in your POS system; you just have to use it when putting out your purchase requests. Compare what you’re asking for to what you actually sold last year.
A good way to put a number on this is GMROI, or Gross Margin Return on Investment, which is used when measuring how effective your product is on your shelf. It is calculated by taking your gross profit and dividing it by your average cost of inventory. So if you get a GMROI of 2, that means you made $2 in gross profit on that product for every dollar that was invested in it. If you bought a plant that took 7 weeks to sell and had a 15% waste rate, your GMROI isn’t going to look great, even if you sold all of them. Your money was tied up for longer than it needed to be, and you lost 15% of your product. Splitting your buy may help improve that number.
Retail Inventory Analysis Tip #2
Staying Price Competitive with Big Box Stores
Our next retail inventory analysis tip is a little more advanced, but it’s a true story. One of our retail clients recently had us upload their entire Christmas decoration line to Barton, our AI-powered assistant for Counterpoint powered by Claude, and had it pull which UPCs are being sold by big box stores. Then they asked it to do a price analysis on them, so they had their price and cost alongside the “big box price.”
Now, it took them no time at all to figure out which items they should not be stocking. There were a few items that the big box stores were selling for less than what the store was paying for them, which would obviously lead to discontinuing those products. They decided to keep the staple items but will not promote the item or its price. If you’re advertising a product that your customer can get cheaper somewhere else, you’re not going to make as much money off of it.
According to the NRF holiday survey in October, 56% of shoppers said that the economy will impact their spending habits this holiday season, and 31% of those shoppers said they will comparison shop online more than they usually do. It’s best to know what your customer is going to compare your prices to. Keep in mind that big box prices can change on the fly as well, so this price analysis may not be accurate in the future.
When the season ends
Questions To Ask Yourself
Both of these tips come down to the same habit: asking your own numbers better questions. You don’t have to know the answer to all of these before Christmas is over, but it’s nice to have the information when you’re making your purchases for next year.
5 Questions when the Season Ends
Write the Answers Down for Next Year's Buyer.
- 1What items took you the longest to sell, and were they all bought at once?
- 2What did you have waste on, and how much?
- 3What items did you promote that made you the least amount of money?
- 4What products are big box stores selling for less than you're paying for?
- 5If you could do your purchase requests over, what would you change?
Key Takeaway: The answers are already in your POS. Write them down before the season ends.
Print this page and keep it with your purchase requests.
Barton for NCR Counterpoint
Who Will Do This Analysis For You?
Of course, it’s one thing to know the questions and another to have the time to answer them. How much would it cost you to hire someone to analyze your inventory, help you find the min/max on each item, and forecast your purchasing? Probably more than you want to spend.
That’s where Barton comes in. If you use NCR Counterpoint, we have built a Rapid POS connector that allows you to ask these questions of your own data. We use and test Claude for our customers. It’s not an AI; it’s a Rapid POS connector that pulls information from your Counterpoint system, which allows AI to do the analysis for you. It only reads information from your system, so it cannot change anything. Use it as a tool to help with your purchases, and double-check any information you plan to use to buy product.
There are many things out there using AI right now that aren’t related to your day-to-day tasks, but this is one that can help you as a retailer, no matter the size of your business. If you’re not ready for that, no worries. Just keep these questions in mind when purchasing, and maybe you can save a little money this year.
Questions Retailers Ask Next
What information do I need from my POS to do this?
Chances are you already have all of this information. Just grab a copy of your purchases from the previous year and figure out how many you purchased and how many weeks it took to turn through your stock. For fresh items, figure out what percent was waste.
Additionally, it may help to create 3 more columns for these items to track pricing: what you paid for the product, your sale price, and what price the big box stores are selling it for. This data can be handy for keeping track of trends and margins.
When should I run a retail inventory analysis?
You want to do this while it’s still fresh in your head and before you request your orders for next year. It doesn’t have to be done by the end of the holiday season, but it should be completed before you order your next seasonal products.
By the time you order next year, you’ll have no idea how many weeks it took to turn your items… but your POS will.
Is a GMROI of 2 good?
Having a GMROI of 2 means that for every dollar you invested in that product, you made $2 in gross profit. So yes, it’s a good number, but there is no set number that’s good for all products. Try comparing product to product or this year to last year; if one product is falling behind the others, then you know something isn’t right. Splitting your purchase could benefit you here: same product, same supplier, just a better buying pattern.
How accurate will my big box price comparison be?
It’s only accurate as of that day. Prices can fluctuate at any time, so use this as a general guideline. Once you’ve picked out the items you want to check before buying, you can re-check them and see what the prices are currently. There are many reasons to do this. The chances your customers will be checking prices elsewhere will be high, and it’s best to be as informed as possible. Once you have your information, you can decide which items you want to carry and which you may want to discontinue.
Can Barton change my data?
No. Barton is only able to read your information and cannot change your data. You can ask it as many questions as you want, and it will not alter anything existing within your Counterpoint system. Always double-check the information you’ll be basing your purchases on. Use Barton to find those answers more quickly.
Where Rapid POS fits
How Can Rapid POS Help?
You already have all of this information in your POS. We just help you manage your inventory so that you can ask these questions. If you use or are interested in NCR Counterpoint, schedule a demo with us today and we can show you how Barton can help the visibility of your data.
